The Topline
- Last week in Australia, Prime Minister Mark Carney said “one can never categorically rule out participation” in the broader Middle East conflict. However, this week he told MPs in the House of Commons that Canada “will never participate” in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
- Carney initially expressed support for the U.S. and Israeli air strikes when they began, but later said he took that position “with regret” and that the strikes appeared to violate international law.
- He also said Canada supports efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and exporting terrorism, while also reiterating that Canada will not take part in offensive military operations.
Switch sides,
back and forth
Trading missiles for free trade
There’s an old phrase: keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.
It’s fair to say Donald Trump is no friend of Canada’s. Since he’s sticking around for three more years, how do we manage that relationship without making things even harder?
The first rule is simple: don’t irritate the guy.
Avoiding direct criticism of Trump’s attack on Iran, while leaving the door open to possible Canadian support, would make life a heck of a lot easier for Canadians than the alternative.
Remember, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement negotiations are on the horizon, and Canada’s economic future depends heavily on them. The United States is our largest trading partner by a wide margin.
About 75 per cent of Canada’s exported goods are shipped to the U.S., supporting roughly two million direct and indirect Canadian jobs.
Without free trade with the Americans, Canada’s hooped.
So if there was ever a time for Canada to earn a few goodwill points with Trump, this might be it. He started a war with Iran and is looking for international backing. Canada, meanwhile, is looking to protect its trade relationship. The interests aren’t entirely the same, but the timing certainly lines up.
Spain made it clear it would not get involved. That’s a perfectly reasonable position, but the consequences were predictable. Soon after, Trump responded with threats to cut off U.S. trade with Spain.
The U.K. also felt the heat after initially declining to participate. The pressure from Trump was strong enough that U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer agreed to allow the U.S. to use its military bases in order to cool the rhetoric. Trump’s response: that’s fine, we don’t need you anyway, but “we will remember.”
That’s the reality Canada is dealing with.
Trump will be in office for three more years. Carney’s responsibility is to Canada and Canada alone, which means navigating that reality as carefully as possible.
Just like the first time he met with Trump at the White House, Carney should keep smiling, toss him some praise, and leave the door open to at least the idea of Canada’s participation. For now, the goal isn’t to endorse every decision Trump makes – it’s to protect Canada’s economic interests.
And then hope things look different in 2028.
Allies, not accomplices
When the U.S. started its disastrous war on Iraq in 2003, Canada had a decision to make.
Despite pressure from President George W. Bush, former Prime Minister Jean Chretien stood his ground and maintained Canada’s position: we would not participate in the Iraq war without a resolution from the U.N. Security Council.
Chretien wasn’t winging it. He was following a long-standing Canadian tradition.
For generations, Canadian leaders have been cautious about joining foreign wars that weren’t Canada’s fight. Prime ministers such as John A. Macdonald, Wilfrid Laurier, William Lyon Mackenzie King, and Louis St. Laurent all resisted pressure to join British conflicts. Later, Lester B. Pearson similarly declined U.S. pressure to join the Vietnam War.
These are the leaders who defined the values of Canada that we live by today. Carney is simply sticking to that same ethos.
And frankly, he has good reason.
For starters, the U.S.-Israeli assault raises serious questions under international law – something Canada takes seriously in its foreign policy.
As for Trump’s endgame, it’s anyone’s guess. When the missiles stop flying and the bombing ends, his expectation seems to be that the Iranian people will simply sift through the rubble and “take over the government.” That’s easier said than done.
And then there’s the issue of our military capabilities – or lack thereof.
Dave Perry, host of the Defense Deconstructed podcast, told CKNW’s Mike Smyth that Canada’s aging fighter jets aren’t nearly as capable as the U.S. or Israeli jets in air-to-ground combat. The Canadian navy fleet can’t partake in the kind of missile strikes the U.S. is launching from sea. Our stuff is ancient.
Last year, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Carney gave a widely praised speech. He called for restraint. He urged leaders of the world’s “middle powers” to work together and avoid unnecessary escalation.
By refusing to join the war with Iran, he’s simply practicing what he’s preached.
The war in Iran was Trump’s own creation, and now it’s his own problem to solve – not Canada’s.
